One tactic the political establishment uses to maintain control is to cause voter discouragement or voter apathy. They try for both because they get the same results – those voters stay home on Election Day because they think their vote doesn’t matter.
In campaigns, candidates often focus heavily on getting information to “super voters.” A super voter is defined as people who always vote when elections are held. You can find that out through researching the Supervisor of Elections public records (or by buying the lists if you can afford it). [P.S. voter records tell you that they voted, not who they voted for. Anyone who claims to know who someone voted for is making up stories unless they stood next to them while they voted]. Anyway…
It’s in the establishment’s best interest to pour energy into super voters because it’s a much more manageable number to control and they’re sure votes.
For those not considered super voters, it’s better for the establishment if those people stay home.
In my opinion, when you hear talk of successful grass-roots campaigns, it generally means that candidate did a good job energizing voters who may or not have otherwise voted.
Here are some examples of county-wide races that could have been different if a few more people had voted (or voted differently). All these stats are from the Hernando County Supervisors of Elections office website.
2012 Republican Primary: Sager beats Druzbick by EIGHT (8), yes this is not a mistake, EIGHT votes. Obviously a recount was needed, and this was the final result.
2014 Republican Primary: Holcomb beats Pizzo by SEVENTY-NINE (79) votes.
2014 General Election: Ingoglia beats Rocco by 5082 votes.
I include this one because it shows how well a Democrat did against Ingoglia in a General Election. This is why Republicans should be more concerned about people flipping to Independent. Though they may share Republican values, they may vote Democrat to avoid what they perceive to be an untrustworthy Republican leader.
In a more conspiratorial theory, maybe the establishment LIKES people switching to Independent from Republican because it makes it easier to control Republican Primaries. And since Republican Primaries essentially decide the General Election winner in Hernando County, it lets them control who gets into every single elected office.
Just a thought.
2016 Republican Primary: Nicholson beats LaRocca by 352 votes. (Yes, that’s our area code which is kinda cool). If you add Swilley votes to LaRocca’s, there were more people that DIDN’T want Nicholson than did.
Ditto for 2022 Republican Primary: Hawkins wins with 8890 votes, but 12,145 voted for Fulford or Spence. When the fake candidate that had filed to keep the Primary closed to Independent and Democrat voters subsequently dropped out, that meant that 12,145 voters picked our county commissioner.
2016 Republican Primary, non-establishment candidate Champion beats Russell by 1125 votes.
Four years later, still smarting over Champion’s win, the establishment put up Creep-Now-In-Prison-For-Child-Porn Kevin Hohn.1 Thankfully for our county, Champion crushed him.
In 2018, incumbent Dukes only beat Narverud by 277 votes and Greenwell by 920 votes.
So what’s my point?
Your vote really does matter. So do those of your family and friends.
Make Election Day Great Again by throwing a party to celebrate our right to vote or driving with friends to the polls.
Imagine where our county would be if some of these narrowly-won elections had ended differently?!
It’s a sobering thought. But it’s also encouraging because it means we have the power to change things up if we use the power we have to do so. It’s your ballot – use it to its fullest potential!
P.S. My thanks to blog reader Susan Wagner Pribil who alerted me to an even closer election (back in the days when I was enjoying my education years at Grove City College). A School Board candidate won by TWO votes! See you at the polls!
Natalie Kahler 
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